Etsy raises 2018 revenue growth forecast, shares hit record

(Reuters) - Etsy Inc on Thursday raised its full-year revenue growth forecast, boosted by an increase in its transaction fee for sellers, sending shares of the company surging 35 percent to a record high.

FILE PHOTO - A sign advertising the online seller Etsy Inc. is seen outside the Nasdaq market site in Times Square following Etsy"s initial public offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq in New York April 16, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo

The share jump pushed up the company’s market cap by $ 1.4 billion.

The site for handmade goods, which struggled after its initial public offering in 2015, began its turnaround effort after board member and former eBay executive Josh Silverman took charge as chief executive officer in May last year after ex-CEO Chad Dickerson stepped down.

Silverman came to Etsy amid concerns about slowing growth, poor functionality of the company’s website and the specter of competition from Amazon.com Inc, which launched a marketplace for handmade goods in 2015.

The company now expects revenue growth of 32 percent to 34 percent in 2018, up from its previous forecast of 22 percent to 24 percent. It also raised the higher end of its gross merchandise sales growth range.

Etsy’s share movement was in contrast to arts and crafts specialty retailer Michaels Cos Inc, which dropped 15 percent after it expected flat comparable sales in the second quarter and comparable sales growth of up to 1.5 percent in fiscal 2018.

Etsy, however has beaten average analysts’ estimates in every quarter since Silverman’s appointment to the helm. It missed estimates in the four quarters prior to his arrival.

The company’s shares have more than doubled in the last 12 months.

“Etsy management has improved its merchandising, which in turn has led to stronger merchant sales. As Etsy is doing more for the merchants, Etsy is able to charge more, especially since the fees were relatively cheaper than competitors,” analyst Ronald Bookbinder of IFS Securities said.

Etsy said it would increase the transaction fee it charges when a seller makes a sale to 5 percent from 3.5 percent. The new fee would apply to the cost of shipping.

The company said it plans to increase direct marketing spending by at least 40 percent in 2018 and revamp community platforms.

Etsy has shifted its focus to areas that are showing the most growth for the handmade marketplace, particularly on its core e-commerce site.

The company has improved its website’s search function and uses artificial intelligence to provide better product recommendations for customers. In 2017 the company also ran holiday promotions for the first time.

“They took that really good business model and fine tuned the engine and now they have got that engine firing on all cylinders,” D.A. Davidson & Co. analyst Tom Forte said.

Reporting by Arjun Panchadar in Bengaluru; Editing by Bernard Orr and Shounak Dasgupta

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Week 49 Breakout Forecast: Short-Term Picks To Give You An Edge

Positive Acceleration Momentum Stocks

This week I have selected 8 breakout stocks from the following sectors: 2 healthcare, 4 basic materials, 1 technology and 1 services. Detailed charts for each stock are at the end of the article.

The new selections of positive momentum stocks for this week include:

1. Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) - Basic Materials / Independent Oil & Gas
2. Cogentix Medical, Inc. (CGNT) - Healthcare / Medical Appliances & Equipment
3. Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. (FET) - Basic Materials / Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
4. Noble Corporation (NE) - Basic Materials / Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

• Four additional long positions are available to subscribers.
• Four negative acceleration momentum stocks available to subscribers.
• Live daily chart tracking and momentum updates for subscribers are available along with detailed portfolio performance of individual stocks.

Thumbnail images of the Positive Momentum Portfolio Week 49

Intro

Welcome to the Momentum Breakout Selection list for Week 49. This article provides the complete list of Breakout Stocks for subscribers only. The full performance results for all the different portfolios are linked in the 2017 YTD performance results with important descriptions of the different portfolio methodologies. A brief summary of the selection methodology for these momentum stocks can be found in my primer article on quick pick momentum accelerators.

Performance Summary

This past Week 48 saw substantial volatility in the S&P 500 with the highest two consecutive weekly gains totaling 2.44% since May 28th. Consistent with the 63 years of historical S&P 500 returns charted below, November also saw the S&P 500 gain 2.81%, the largest monthly gain this year since 3.72% in February. I continue to maintain several market hedges in VIX as I have detailed on the message board. During the 260 point intraday decline in the Dow this week the VIX JAN calls saw gains of more than 44%. This significant
increase in volatility could be an early signal of a pending market top. Again, historically the S&P 500 tends to perform extremely well in December.Total cumulative long portfolio returns by week of the past 5 weeks (t-5) are listed below through the end of Week 48 to illustrate rolling returns of prior top performers through Friday:

Breakout Forecast	Long Portfolio Returns past 5 weeks / Top Performers
Week 47 (t-1)	+5.56% (EXPR) +31.52%, (NGVC) +25.60%, (SPWH) +11.54%
Week 46 (t-2)	+1.64% (SORL) +24.87%, (PIRS) +11.38%, (AUTO) +8.20%
Week 45 (t-3)	+7.30% (DNR) +44.70%, (IOVA) +12.82%, (SLCA) +11.43%
Week 44 (t-4)	+8.90% (MRNS) +21.37%, (WLL) +11.08%, (ARAY) +8.25%
Week 43 (t-5)	+15.18% (CPRX) +59.42%, (VRAY) +47.76%, (BBG) +31.72%

As I continue my study, the typical optimum momentum holding duration from this analysis appears to be one to three weeks, but as the rolling 5 week table above illustrates, some of these stocks can carry positive momentum for many weeks and some may return to the selection list in the current week.

The breakout frequency of 5% and 10% gainers per week continues to outpace the broad market by 4-5 times higher rates of occurrence in the same population of stocks (non-OTC, non-ETF). As the chart below indicates through Week 46, the average number of breakouts above 10% in a trading week is 26% of the breakout portfolio compared to 3.42% in the comparable population of stocks in the US market exchanges. This is a frequency greater than 7 times the expected breakout rate of the greater market population.

All past selections of individual returns are available on my list of articles by Breakout Forecast Week. This includes daily and weekly returns for all stocks selected since the beginning of 2017. These stock selections are intended to provide the highest probability of greater than 10% gains within the first week (5 trading days) by focusing on accelerating momentum characteristics detailed in my primer article linked above.

End of week results for Week 48:

Several of these stocks from last week continue to show momentum into next week. You can view their progress on the live chart link included for subscribers.
End of Week 48 Benchmark Index:

Charts of Week 49 Selections are as follows:

Positive Acceleration Momentum Stocks

Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) - Basic Materials / Independent Oil & Gas

Cogentix Medical, Inc. (CGNT) - Healthcare / Medical Appliances & Equipment Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. (FET) - Basic Materials / Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Noble Corporation (NE) - Basic Materials / Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Value Portfolio Results through week 48

The following are the weekly updates for each of value portfolios generated every month and tracked in addition to the weekly breakout selections. The Forensic Analysis Value Stock selection portfolio returns are listed below. The latest December selections of the Forensic Portfolios are available here.

Forensic Selections with Adverse Scores	Returns YTD	Number of Periods
July (-) Forensic Portfolio 1	68.11%	5 months
Aug (-) Forensic Portfolio 2	39.05%	4 months
Sep (-) Forensic Portfolio 3	23.47%	3 months
Oct (-) Forensic Portfolio 4	-1.59%	2 months
Nov (-) Forensic Portfolio 5	4.80%	1 month
Forensic Selections with Positive Scores	Returns YTD	Number of Periods
July (+) Forensic Portfolio 1	15.50%	5 months
Aug (+) Forensic Portfolio 2	11.89%	4 months
Sep (+) Forensic Portfolio 3	3.06%	3 months
Oct (+) Forensic Portfolio 4	-4.40%	2 months
Nov (+) Forensic Portfolio 5	-6.66%	1 month

The Piotroski value model is well documented in 17 years of financial literature to outperform other value selection models. This is part of an ongoing study to test the selection performance through multiple portfolios over one year. Further detail and charts of each of the Piotroski Portfolios are available here.

Piotroski Enhanced Value	Returns YTD	Number of Periods
August Portfolio	9.41%	4 months
September Portfolio	10.10%	3 months
October Portfolio	4.92%	2 months
November Portfolio	2.10%	1 month

As always, I hope you capture the most beneficial returns of this small sample of the weekly breakout selections and have a profitable week of trading! Thank you for reading my articles. If you want free future updates, just click the "Follow" button at the top of the page.

If you enjoy receiving my Breakout Forecast updates each week, please also consider receiving the complete eight long selections and four short selections every week with a subscription today! Subscribers also receive the full updates with more detail well in advance of this article prior to the market open every week.

Thank you!

JD Henning, PhD, CFE

Disclosure: I am/we are long DNR NGVC EXPR SPWH MRNS.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Editor"s Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $ 1 per share and/or with less than a $ 100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

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